10 Tips for Betting on Football

Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

And where does all that money go?

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies.

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker.

3. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points.

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

8. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game.

10. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has.

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says.

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can.

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

4. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

1. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline.

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

6. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites.

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

9. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

5. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty.

7. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl.

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks.

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

2. “Teams play inspired ball at home. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

So, how much should you bet a game?

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas.

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky

Vegas handicappers, celeb picks for Super Bowl 50

I think the Panthers take the lead late and hang on, not to mention that Panthers by one to four [points] and under looks like it will be the best case for us out here in Vegas.”

“[This is] the best defense Carolina has played all year, the most pressure they’ve faced all year, and Carolina is away from home, where they crush everyone.”

“I see this game closing at Carolina minus-4.5, so there is value with taking the six points that are currently out there for Denver. But my gut tells me that the No. (aka Rounding Again), 2015 SuperContest champion at Westgate Las Vegas

“The Panthers pack more big-play firepower, but the Broncos’ top-ranked defense can do enough to contain Newton. In the end, this season’s MVP, Cam Newton, will do just enough for the Panthers to win the Lombardi Trophy.”

“Although Peyton Manning’s overall ability may only be 70 percent of what it once was, the experience factor is still at 100 percent. Newton’s athletic ability will ultimately pull out the win by the slimmest of margins.”

ATS pick: Panthers roll — no score given

Jay Rood, MGM Resorts International VP of race and sports

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Panthers 20, Broncos 16

Bob Scucci, Boyd Gaming director of race and sports book operations

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Broncos 24, Panthers 20

Robin Leach, host of “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous,” current blogger at vegasluxe.com

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Panthers 24, Broncos 20

Art Manteris, Station Casinos VP of race and sports book operations

Spread: Opened Carolina -4; now Carolina -5.5

Total: Opened at 45 points; now 45.5

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Panthers 21, Broncos 20

Tony Nevill, Treasure Island race and sports book director

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Broncos 27, Panthers 17

Tony Miller, Golden Nugget race and sports book director

Oscar Goodman, former Las Vegas mayor, mob lawyer and Bombay Sapphire Gin spokesman

Below, Chalk gathers responses from professional handicappers, celebrities, Vegas bookmakers and more on how they see the game playing out.

“Denver’s defense humbles Cam, but the Panthers’ defensive line dominates the trenches, allowing Luke Kuechly to roam the field as he tackles his way to the MVP.”

“The Broncos’ defense can slow the game down and they’ll be running the ball, so I can see a low-scoring game, but I think the Panthers come back and win it in the end.”

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Denver 23, Carolina 20

Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill U.S. Manning will keep the Broncos in the game with his brain and not necessarily his arm. Long-shot Jerricho Cotchery named the MVP.”

ATS pick: Broncos

Score: Panthers 23, Broncos 21

Jason Simbal, CG Technology VP of race and sports

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Panthers 24, Broncos 20

“I’ve already bet Carolina minus-4, but I’m a mercenary when it comes to betting. Denver’s defense should be able to keep it close, but I think Cam will do something special to get the win.”

Against the spread (ATS) pick: Denver

Score: Broncos 24, Panthers 20

Chris Berman, ESPN analyst

“Giving Wade Phillips two weeks to prepare for Newton is the key.

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Panthers 16, Broncos 13

James S. I like Carolina to win, but on a neutral field, this line looks a little high.”

“Superman will come and he will shine. Six just sounds reasonable!”

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Broncos 24, Panthers 23

Luke Rockhold, UFC middleweight champion

“I think Denver’s defense can go down as one of the top 10 in NFL history, and Phillips will have his best game plan for Cam and the red-hot Panthers.”

“[I'm] guessing that the second half will be wide open and that a late field goal will win it for the Broncos. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will alter the explosive offense of the Panthers.”

“Denver puts up a much better fight than what bettors think, as Peyton will keep the Broncos in the game.

“The Broncos will get off to a good start and put some doubt into the Panthers. The Broncos’ defense forces the Panthers into two critical turnovers, as they are not comfortable playing from behind.”

ATS pick: Carolina

Score: Panthers 35, Broncos 17

Marc Nelson, Aliante Casino race and sports book director

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Panthers 20, Broncos 16

Matt Youmans, Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting writer

“My friend Olivia Newton-John was invited by Cartier to pick out jewelry to wear when she was named Woman of the Year two weeks ago. Olivia picked out her ensembles, and Cartier added its trademark panther bracelet to top off “the look.” The next night, the Carolina Panthers won, and ONJ now says it’s an omen for them to go all the way. Great offenses and defenses should make for another great game.”

“Broncos lead a very low-scoring affair into the fourth quarter 13-6, when Carolina puts up 10 unanswered points to win on the last drive with no time on the clock, 16-13. They have everything: the top offense in the league, and the defense is awesome. I just think that the Panthers are too much right now. Then I’ll watch the game with enough drinks until I’m seeing 44 players on the field and hope for the score to fall in the middle.”

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Broncos 23, Panthers 20

“Will Carolina complete an almost perfect season or will Denver give Manning a fairy-tale finish? The eyeball test says Carolina, as there’s nothing about the Panthers not to like. There are a lot fewer scenarios in which the Broncos win. director of trading . I’m trusting Nationwide will be on his side.”

Public Consensus pick: 72 percent picked Carolina

John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas executive director of race and sports 

Score: Panthers 28, Broncos 23

Jay Kornegay, Westgate Las Vegas VP of race and sports operations

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Broncos, 24, Panthers 21

Vince Neil, Motley Crue lead singer and former owner of Las Vegas Outlaws (Arena Football League)

“Newton is on a roll, and even though Denver has a great defense, they won’t stop his momentum.”

The Super Bowl is the biggest American betting event of the year, and everyone has an opinion on which team will win — and cover — the game.

“This will be a relatively defensive game in my opinion. The line has gone too far now, so I’m going to bet on the Broncos, and hopefully I’ll get plus-6.5. ONJ is betting them to win, so I follow her lead. 1 defense and the all-around know-how from Peyton lead to a surprise finish in a historic Super Bowl.”

ATS pick: Carolina

Score: Panthers 27, Broncos 21

Ed Malinowski, Stratosphere

“I think the Broncos can keep it close defensively and am counting on Manning to manage the game intelligently and avoid mistakes. They’ve been killing teams and taking over games, and I expect nothing less in this next matchup.”

ATS pick: Denver

Score: Panthers 23, Broncos 20

Mark Dufty, Jerry’s Nugget race and sports book director

All lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, unless otherwise noted. Logo represents team picked to cover the spread

Greyhound Handicapping – An Easy Early Speed Method

It’s simple, fast and you can do it with a pencil and your program.. There are many ways to find it, including complicated calculations and computer software programs.

I’ve actually seen people stand at the first turn to clock first to turn times in every race. Use it along with the other factors of basic greyhound handicapping and see if it makes a difference in your bank account.

Some people get fancy and divide the sum of the two calls by the number of races to get the average numbers. The next number after the break call is the 1/8th call – the position the dog was in relative to the other dogs when they passed the 1/8th pole.

Or does it break fast, then fade? Or does it get out more slowly, but then gain momentum quickly so that it’s ahead or close to the lead at the 1/8th call? This can all be figured out by adding those columns.

Dogs with early speed will have low number for those two calls. So, if you add up those two numbers for each dog, you’ll be able to see which dogs have the best speed at the beginning of the race. Some separate the two columns, because they want to break it down even more. Me, I don’t have that much time or dedication to give to it, so I do it the lazy way. Just look for the dogs with the lowest numbers.

While every greyhound handicapper has a different opinion, most consider early speed a factor in picking winners. Does it break fast and also get to the 1/8th call fast?

Simply look at the break and 1/8th calls – they’re the numbers usually after the dog’s weight and post position in the program.

It takes minutes for each race and, if you use early speed in your handicapping, can make you money. For instance, if the dog is in the 1 box, the calls will start with 2 – the post position – and then go to the break call – where the dog was when the boxes opened. Just remember that it isn’t everything