How do we identify the best pedigree, then? If you’re using the DRF past performances, use the stud fee as a proxy for quality, and the Tomlinson figure to judge suitability for the distance and surface. The inside post combined with early speed is a particularly potent combination, since the horse will not have to exert himself as much to gain his preferred position at the front of the pack.
In fact, pedigree does not generally offer wager value with one curious exception: well bred horses do surprisingly well in maiden claiming races. Most people who love horse racing would be thrilled just to win a little more and lose a little less on their trips to the track.
Horse Racing System #2 – Bet horses that have an excuse for a poor performance in their last race. This system takes advantage of one of the few glaring inefficiencies in the parimutuel pools, namely that first and second time starters are badly over-bet.
. In that spirit. Just don’t expect to quit your day job.
Horse Racing System #3 – In maiden claiming races, bet the horse with the best pedigree. It must follow, therefore, that if we bet the best horse that has started at least twice, we stand an excellent chance of beating the takeout, particularly in races that have several first and second time starters.
Looking for a dead simple horse racing system that will allow you to quit your job and make a living betting the horses in just 10 minutes a day? Good luck with that!
For as long as humans have bet on horse racing there have been system sellers trying to con the gullible into parting with their hard earned money with the lure of easy profits to be made on the sport of kings. Because speed figures have gained in popularity over the years, anyone following that system now would have trouble coming up with gas money for the ride home from the track.
However, just because systems won’t make you rich doesn’t mean there’s no place for them at all in a horseplayer’s arsenal. This offers opportunity to more diligent players.
Second, the very nature of the parimutuel system itself means that any profits to be made from following a particular set of rules will quickly be arbitraged away as the followers of that system drive down the odds of horses chosen by the system.
In the first place, the parimutuel takeout in horse racing is large (over 15%) and the mutuel pools are relatively efficient, so that even systems with a strong basis in reality can’t overcome the size of the takeout.
Instead of blindly betting all horses breaking from the inside, you might use this to supplement your handicapping, paying particular attention to the inside horse, and betting it when you like the horse on other handicapping grounds. My own studies have shown a similar advantage for the inside post in routes.
Horse Racing System #1 – In maiden races, bet the horse with the best last race speed figure that has had at least two career starts. Let me let you in on a little secret about these “magic formulas”. It should go without saying that you should actually like the favorite’s chances after evaluating the race with your own handicapping.
The horse with the best last race speed figure (whether Beyer, BRIS, or Equibase) may not be the best horse in the race, but he’s probably not far off, so we can use that as a proxy for selection purposes.
Look for comment lines like “bled”, “lost rider”, “clipped heels”, “stumbled”, “steadied”, “between horses”, “rank”, and “jumped shadows” that suggest that a horse’s last race was not indicative of its true ability. They will, however increase the chances of a profitable day at the races by ensuring that your wager dollars go where they have the best chance of success. The inside post in turf routes actually showed a small profit, but this was based on a small sample size and cannot be relied upon. To the extent that most handicappers use pedigree at all, it’s usually to identify horses that may improve when switched to the turf, or those who may be expected to win as first time starters. I was able to replicate this result in my own study of nearly 100,000 races conducted a decade later.
For instance, many speed figure handicappers reported making horse racing profits in the 60′s and 70′s simply by betting horses with the best last race speed figure. In most case the public seems to take a horse’s last running line at face value. This is another mistake that bettors make: in a race with a clear standout, many people give up on the win pool and bet their choice to place, thinking that they’ll get paid even if the favorite wins.
This causes the favorite to be under bet in the place pool, leading to a profit opportunity for us to take advantage of by betting the favorite to place. With the BRIS pp’s you can use the Sire Production Factor in concert with the pedigree rating. This is somewhat counter-intuitive since you’d expect that horses with good pedigrees that end up in the maiden claiming ranks probably can’t run at all. My study suggests that’s not the case.
Nunamaker reported that the inside post in dirt route races won at a 20% greater than expected rate, and lost only 10 cents on the dollar, much better than the track take. I’ve identified some of the most useful handicapping factors that have a proven history of doing much better than the track takeout and put them together with some simple rules that should make your trips to the racetrack more fun and profitable. My computer studies of pedigree, based on nearly 100,000 races, suggest that using pedigree in that manner offers no advantage to the player.
None of these systems will make you rich, or even guarantee that you will make a profit. One of the few anomalies turned up by Michael Nunamaker in his pioneering computer study “Modern Impact Values”, published in 1994, was that horses breaking from the inside post position in route races won more than their fair share of races, and were under-bet by the public. Thanks for reading, and see you in the winner’s circle.
First time starters return only about 60 cents on the dollar, and second time starters are only a little better, returning less than 70 cents on the dollar. Few bother to even look at the comment line for the race, let alone take the trouble to seek out and watch the replay of the race. The horse with the best combination of the two is the play.
Horse Racing System #4 – Bet low-priced favorites to place. If the tote board suggests that the public is overlooking these mitigating circumstances, make your play.
Horse Racing System #5 – Bet Horses breaking from the inside post in route races
Jimmy Walker, Brandt Sendeker, Danny Lee, Jason Dufner – 40 to 1 odds each
At age 29, Kevin Chappell is still looking for his first PGA Tour win. Players like Phil Mickelson, Lee Trevino and Zach Johnson are tied for the second most wins with two each.
5. Chappell is lower odds here because he finished alone in 2nd place at the Players in his last start. That was the last of his three PGA Tour wins.
4. Nuff said. Jordan Spieth was in position to win last week at the Byron Nelson playing with Brooks Koepka in the final pairing Sunday just two strokes back but Spieth shot a 74 and ended up tied for 18th place. Jordan Spieth – 6 to 1
The 2016 Dean & DeLuca golf tournament on the PGA Tour is taking place this week from May 26-29, 2016, at the Colonial Country Club located in Fort Worth, Texas.
Bill Haas tied for 43rd place last week. Marc Leishman has one career win in 188 starts. Toms has 13 career PGA Tour wins including a major but he’s not won a tournament since 2011.
Other than a 5th place finish at the Arnold Palmer in March, Zach Johnson has not played well enough to win in 2016. On top of that, Bohn suffered a heart attack during the Honda Classic back in February. Adam Scott – 11 to 1
Boo Weekley – 80 to 1 odds
David Toms won this tournament in 2011. Patton Kizzire is 30 and still looking for his first PGA Tour win.
Jason Dufner has a win in 2016 and he’s finished second in this tournament twice in the past (2012, 2014). Schwartzel won the Valspar Championship in March and he could play well this week.
Matt Kuchar shot -14 under last week to finish alone in 3rd place at the Byron Nelson. Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Jim Furyk – 33 to 1 odds each
Jason Bohn – 100 to 1 odds
Jason Bohn only has two career wins and his last win was in 2010 and he’s missed the cut in his last three PGA Tour starts. He’s a mild threat here to get his 6th PGA win here. Adam Scott has two wins in 2016 and 13 total wins on the PGA Tour. Matt Kuchar – 14 to 1
Good luck to all the PGA golfers and especially the bettors this week at the 2016 Dean & DeLuca Invitational at Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas!
Colt Knost is 30 and he’s yet to win on tour but he tied for 3rd at the Players and was 4th last week in his last two starts. Zach Johnson – 22 to 1
T-7. Colt Knost, Tony Finau, Marc Leishman, Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire – 50 to 1 odds each
Boo Weekley won this tournament in 2013. Tony Finau tied for 12th last week. He’s a big threat this week to win.
Since winning the Texas Open for his 4th PGA Tour win on April 21st, Charley Hoffman finished 11th at the Zurich Classic, missed the cut at the Players and finished tied for 12th last week at the Byron Nelson. Charl Schwartzel tied for 58th place last week but that was his first tournament since he missed the cut at the Masters. Then a few notable golfers with much higher odds are listed along with comments why.
T-11. He has three PGA Tour wins but his last win was in 2010.
The Dean & DeLcua Invitational dates back to 1946. Louis Oosthuizen’s lone PGA win remains the 2010 British Open and he missed the cut last week.
T-19. Matt Kuchar has not won a PGA Tour event in over two years now and he should be higher odds to win this week.
1. Ben Hogan holds the record for most wins in the tournament with five. He won the Puerto Rico Open for his first career win at the end of March. Bill Haas, Ryan Palmer – 45 to 1 odds each
At odds of 6 to 1, Jordan Spieth is the betting favorite this week to win the 2016 Dean & DeLuca Invitational. But Jason Bohn did finish tied for 2nd in this tournament last year just one stroke off the lead.. Zach Johnson does have two wins in this tournament (2010, 2012).
Chris Kirk is the defending champion in this tournament but that was the last of his four PGA Tour wins. Charley Hoffman – 25 to 1
3. Kirk missed the cut in his last start at the Players. At age 32, Kevin Kisner has one career win and he missed the cut in his last two starts. After missing the cut in his two previous starts, Jimmy Walker tied for 24th last week. Ryan Palmer missed the cut last week. While the meltdown is not a good sign, Jordan Spieth did miss the cut the week before at the Players in his first start since the Masters so he is rounding into form and he did tie for 2nd place in this tournament last year.
6. Here is a list of the betting odds for the PGA golfers to win the 2016 Dean & DeLuca Invitational.
Adam Scott finished tied for 12th at the Players two weeks ago in his last start. Jim Furyk has one win on tour since 2010 and he’s making just his third start back after wrist surgery. Danny Lee has one win on tour and he finished tied for 18th last week. Chappell also finished alone in 2nd place at the RSM Classic and the Arnold Palmer this season so he’s been close to winning but he’s still a maiden on tour.
Kevin Na has one career win in 314 starts. Kevin Chappell – 28 to 1
2. Patrick Reed has finished alone in 2nd place three times this season but has not won a tournament since January of 2015. Brandt Snedeker has missed the cut in his last two starts and in three of his last four tournaments but he did tie for 2nd place here last year just one stroke off the lead.
Listed below are the betting odds and comments for each player who has odds of 50 to 1 or less to win this week. Don’t be fooled, though, as Kuchar also finished 3rd at the Players but that is not winning. Chris Kirk, Charl Schwartzel – 35 to 1 odds each
T-17. Scott won this tournament in 2014 beating Jason Dufner in a playoff. Haas has six PGA Tour wins and he was second at the Valspar in March so he’s a mild threat to win this week. In his last four tournaments he’s failed to crack the top 25 and he finished last week tied for 66th. Could he win again this year? Maybe, but who wants to bet on it?
Gambling is the act of betting money with the expectation of profits. How does gambling affect an individual? What are its effects on society? Read this Buzzle article to know about the negative impact of gambling.. Some of us are addicted to the habit, without even knowing that. Reasons Why Gambling Should Be Illegal
What are the adverse effects of gambling? How does it affect society? Should gambling be legal? We don’t think so and here we bring you an article that discusses the reasons why gambling should be illegal.
Internet Gambling Facts and Problems
What do you know about Internet gambling? Are you aware of the problems associated with it? Read on to know them and find some alarming facts about online gambling, in this article.
Impact of Internet Gambling
So many of us are attracted to gambling online. The thrill in betting money and that excitement in the uncertainty of winning or losing it is addictive
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casino and poker online need constant attention which is essential that you offer good customer care out of all languages of the target markets.
casino and poker online are a good spot to play if you have use of a card room in your town I’d recommend spent some play at live games. Locate a good home game or look
for a local card room if at all possible and go play a couple of times per month if you’re able to. It is therefore vital that you stabilize your casino and poker online have fun with real live games to operate in your skills. This is often a vital skill in enhancing your poker game.
The immediacy from the internet has exposed a brave “new world “for gambler
To add to the so-called merry atmosphere, gamblers often smoke or drink while playing.
? Gambling is practiced as a means of recreation. Because of this, they land in worse situations and take the wrong decisions in life.
Initially, one looks at gambling as a way to run away from life’s problems, or from stress, anger, and loneliness. A recreational activity is supposed to be refreshing and relaxing, but something like gambling is contrary to the very purpose of recreation. Sports betting and arbitrage betting are the other types. The two go hand in hand. The decision to gamble money is based on three parameters namely; how much to bet, the predictability of the event, and the conditions agreed upon, between the gamblers. It soon becomes a habit that can’t be broken.
? Gambling can lead to criminal activities. Forget satisfaction or peace, it is not even refreshing in the real sense. The addiction gets on to the gamblers to such an extent that they fail to think wisely before acting. They tend to stay away from their near ones, resulting in distrust between them and their loved ones.
? Gambling has proven to be addictive. This proves to be detrimental to their social and family life. Over time, it becomes a habit, and eventually an obsession that can’t be overcome. The addiction has negative effects on one’s physical and mental health and it proves to be detrimental to one’s social, personal, and professional life. Their mental state can even lead to suicidal tendencies.
? According to a study by the George State University, 50% of the problem gamblers commit crime. Addiction to gambling, coupled with substance abuse can make the gamblers physically abusive towards their family. When they lose the money they had risked, they further gamble to recover the lost amount and it becomes a vicious circle even they can’t escape from.
? Similar to how an individual keeps consuming substances like drugs or alcohol to experience an altered mental state, he continues to gamble. The addiction robs a gambler of all the productive time and leads to loss of efficiency at work. Six to eight million people in America are estimated to have a gambling problem.
? Studies show that children with a sibling or parent addicted to gambling, are more likely to take to substance abuse.
? The addiction to gambling can leave one in bankruptcy. Thus, gambling can have a grave economic impact which is difficult to reverse.
? The stress from gambling may lead to health issues like ulcers, stomach problems, muscle pains, headaches, and problems with sleep.
Compulsive gambling leads to bankruptcy
? Apart from absence at work and drop in efficiency, a common observation is that gamblers tend to steal money and engage in fraudulent behavior to recover from financial losses incurred when gambling, or to get more money to bet.
? Children of parents who are problem gamblers or gambling addicts tend to feel abandoned and angry, further increasing stress and leading to strained family relations.
? Substances of abuse are served at casinos and in pubs and clubs, thus increasing the likelihood of gamblers consuming them.
Mental and physical health problems, financial issues, and conflicts in the family are among the common negative effects of gambling. Betting is a mentally taxing activity, and as one goes on risking more and more money, anxiety starts building.
? According to a research by NCPG, 76 percent of problem gamblers are likely to have a major depressive disorder.
? Over time, the practice of gambling starts becoming a habit and begins to have damaging effects at psychological, physical, and social levels. The addiction leads people to continue with gambling irrespective of whether they earn or lose in the deal. Card games, coin tossing, and dice-based games are some non-casino based forms of gambling. The greed never ends and they keep betting more and more. The National Council of Problem Gambling (NCPG) describes this type of gambling behavior as problem gambling.
? Addiction to gambling has been linked with substance abuse. In the following sections of this Buzzle article, we discuss the negative effects of gambling on the individual and society.
? People continue gambling with the greed of winning money. Some go that way to forget the sorrow of losing big sums when gambling.
? Gambling at the cost of one’s job results in a decline in the quality of his professional life. It only leads to a thoughtless expenditure of money and valuables.
? A majority of those addicted to gambling have substance abuse disorders.
? According to the University of New York, in people with alcohol use disorders, the chances of developing an addiction to gambling are 23 times higher.
? The costs of treating compulsive gamblers are huge. Due to lost mental peace, they may ill-treat their spouse and children. It causes a decline in his/her work performance, thus hampering his career.
? They start borrowing money and take secret loans. They engage in gambling activities at the cost of their time with family and friends. In spite of the losses incurred, they continue betting. Rehabilitating the gambling addicts needs money and time, and the process is not very easy. On giving a serious consideration to the negative effects of gambling, we realize that it is best avoided.
Gambling = Thoughtless Expenditure + Waste of Time
? Problem gamblers and addicts tend to abuse their family members. The skill of a gambler lies in weighing the three parameters and making a decision about what amount should be staked and how much should be expected in return.
You could be at gunpoint or holding the gun. The effect is similar to that of having a drug or a drink, which is why gambling changes one’s mental state and mood.
? Research has shown that gambling can lead to harmful behavior in people. According to the National Research Council, 10 to 17% of the children of problem gamblers have been abused and so have 25 to 50% of the partners of problems gamblers.
? Additionally, rehabilitation and public assistance systems are taxed.
Gambling refers to the betting of money on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the intent of winning additional wealth. Thus, gambling practices cause a huge financial burden on the families of the affected and on the society at large.
? As gambling leads to increased criminal activities, in a way, gamblers add to the burden on prisons and the legal system.
? Gamblers often exhibit mood swings and a strangely secretive behavior. It can drag you into crime, gambling isn’t fun.
? People who fall prey to gambling tend to remain away from their families and waste money on other bad practices. The stress of risking huge amounts of money or the frustration after losing it can increase the tendency of abuse in gamblers. A study by the same university suggested that 73% of the individuals who are imprisoned are found to be problem gamblers.
? An Austrian study said that around 1 in 5 suicidal patients had a gambling problem.. Some take to substance abuse to supplement the high they get from winning huge sums while gambling. Their debt keeps building and it may reach an amount that exceeds their capacity to repay.
Games offered in casinos, table games like poker, Red Dog, and Blackjack, as also electronic games like Slot Machine and Video Poker are some of the common types of gambling